Undecided Voters, It Shouldn't Be This Hard
Packs Shipment No. 12
Believe it or not, undecided voters still exist.
An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released last week says 11% of voters are still undecided on who they’re voting for in the upcoming election. In the 2016 election, 15% of voters were still undecided two weeks before the election, which is almost three times the amount of undecided voters from the 2012 election, when the number of undecided voters was notably low.
Debates like the one we saw this past week are mainly for the undecided voter—to guide them towards the presidential candidate they might not be sure about. This week's chaotic debate did little to sway some of the unsure 11% one way or another. If anything, voters seem more inclined to not vote at all this election, as the debate didn’t do any favors for either candidate in the yelling match despite a majority believing Biden ultimately won the debate.
In another election year, undecided voters might not be a big deal. But now, in a political climate teetering in dangerous territory, how should we feel about voters who are still undecided? Who could possibly be undecided in this election?
Minutes after the “debate,” 15 self-described undecided voters from crucial swing states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Iowa joined a Zoom call with veteran pollster Frank Luntz to discuss their feelings and gauge reactions. Luntz and everyone else in the political circle knows their opinions are some of the most important at this point in the election. The demographics of the Zoom call fit what the typical undecided voter looks like across the country—predominately white and middle-class.
Other than that, it’s challenging to identify an undecided voter.
Some voters are undecided because they are completely uninterested in politics and don’t become engaged in the election or politics until later in the campaign cycle—which is right now. They’re commonly referred to as the “low-information” voters because they haven’t researched either candidate to come to a definitive conclusion. These debates are vital for them, as it might be the most significant impact on their decision-making.
A growing majority of eligible voters are sitting out of elections completely, either because they don’t feel represented by the candidates or don’t trust in the government system. However, the most interesting collective of undecided voters are the ones who aren’t undecided at all.
A psychological study of voters in Italy’s 2001 General Election sought to evaluate undecided voters. Psychologists gave self-described undecided voters an evaluation four weeks before the election, presenting them with images of both candidates alongside negative and positive adjectives. The quicker undecided voters identified the two candidates with positive or negative connotations, the more consistent it was with their actual voting habits. Subconsciously, they had already made up their mind.
In an interview with Politico, Yanna Krupnikov, a political scientist at Stony Brook University who studied voters of all types for more than a decade, came to a similar conclusion about some undecided voters. “If you think there’s a ‘good’ to saying, ‘I want to hear both sides,’ you might say you’re undecided,” Krupnikov said. “You might actually even on some level believe you’re undecided. But you’re probably not.”
Like most polls and surveys, the information is mainly dependent on the participants being completely truthful with themselves. There’s a myriad of factors at play when deciding who to vote for in an election, and even subconscious decisions play a significant role with self-identified undecided voters. Commonly, a large portion of America’s indecisive voter base is not truthful with themselves, distorting how many are actually undecided.
Possibly the only consistent factor of the undecided voter, however, is that a vast majority of them decide on a candidate within the final weeks of the campaign. And those last-minute decisions have changed elections.
It was a late push of undecided voters towards Trump’s side that ultimately won him the election in 2016. With Trump’s short political resume and conservative appeal, it’s easier to see why an undecided voter might swing for the name-brand millionaire when push came to shove. But now, with four years of Trump in office and decades of talking points on Biden’s resume, what else do undecided voters need to see?
These undecided voters were instrumental in Trump's victory in 2016, albeit the pool of them were larger in 2016 than it is now. But they’ll be important to the 2020 election as well. Choices the possibly unsure make, unfortunately, matter. Trump and Biden will try to spend the majority of the remaining election trying to win their vote instead of locking down the ones they already have.
But, morally, how can anyone be torn between these two candidates?
During the Zoom call with undecided voters, Luntz asked the members to describe Trump’s performance in one word or phrase. Sarah from ___ said, “chaotic”; Rob from Iowa said “unpolished”; Jeremy from Arizona said “un-American”; and Ruthie from Pennsylvania said, “crackhead.” (Luntz would later challenge Ruthie on her position as an undecided voter.)
When they did the same exercise on Biden, Sarah said, “predictable”; Rob said, “surprising at how well he did”; Jeremy said, “leader”; and Ruthie said, “humanity and integrity.” Despite mostly positive reviews from undecided voters on Biden’s debate, the Zoom room was still largely undecided.
In a 2008 piece titled “Undecided,” David Sedaris eloquently described the undecided voter: “To put them in perspective, I think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. ‘Can I interest you in the chicken?’ she asks. ‘Or would you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broken glass in it?’ To be undecided in this election is to pause for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked.”
The undecided voter has proven to be frustrating, finicky, and sometimes not really undecided. Yet they’re a slice of American voters who receive the most attention right now. Their indecision, at this point, is inexcusable.
I want to be empathetic to the undecided voter who ignores politics. In another election, I would probably be more forgiving. But that excuse doesn't work in a country racially divided and under restrictions because of more than 200,000 dead from Covid. In this presidential election, the lines have been drawn in concrete and colored with neon paint.
Trump has appealed to a base of white supremacists who he cannot denounce. His intentions to steal this election is evident, and his overall demeanor should make anyone who cares about optics throw-up in their mouth. He’s lied and divided this country at an extraordinary rate; it’s a trend that not hard to see from people uninterested in politics, even in a 90-minute debate. Anyone who is not blinded by Trump’s persistent con shouldn’t struggle to deny the platter of shit with bits of glass.
Later in the Zoom call, Jennifer from Pennsylvania, who at first said the debate convinced her to vote for Trump, would recant her answer, saying wasn’t sure anymore. She insisted that she “can’t wait for the next debate.” One shit platter, coming up.
Welp, hope y’all enjoyed this edition of Packs. We back next Friday with a new delivery.
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Until next time, be cool.